What is the probability that a person will require a stem cell transplant over the course of a lifetime?

Answer:

• Over the course of a lifetime up to age 70, the probability that a person will require a transplant of her own Stem Cells (”autologous” transplant) is 1 in 450 or 0.23%
• Over the course of a lifetime up to age 70, and the probability of requiring any transplant, from yourself or another person (”autologous” or “allogeneic”  transplant), is 1 in 220 or 0.46%.

Reference: Pasquini, MC, Logan, BR, Verter, F, Horowitz, MM, & Nietfeld, JJ 2005 ASH meeting poster#5260 (download 94 KB) or Abstract published in Blood  (2005) 106:1330

Previous references:

• 1 in 2,703 probability of autologous transplant up to age 20: F.L. Johnson, 1997; J Ped Hem Onc 19(3): 183-186 (probability based on diagnosis rates and treatment modalities)
• 1 in 20,000 probability of autologous transplant up to age 20: G.J. Annas, 1999; NEJM 340: 1521-1524. (probability is stated without proof)
• 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 200,000 probability of autologous transplant over a lifetime: R.M. Kline, April 2001; Sci Amer 4: 30-37. (probability is stated without proof)